ANALYSIS: What the NDP Would Lose by Breaking Deal With Liberals

The NDP is facing pressure from the Conservatives to break its agreement with the Liberals and trigger an early election, and there wouldn’t be many NDP big agenda items left on the table if it did so, a review of the deal shows.
Major pieces of legislation supported by the NDP have been adopted in the areas of dental care, child care, and energy transition, while the pharmacare bill is in the Senate after clearing the House of Commons in June.
The NDP has threatened to pull out of the agreement several times but the Liberal government managed to retain the New Democrats’ support.
Ahead of the new parliamentary session starting in mid-September, and with the deal extending until the end of the spring session of 2025, the partners have not said what area of the agreement they’ll focus on.
The deal has now been in place for nearly 2 1/2 years, and most of the policy objectives in the agreement have been carried out.
Government House Leader Karina Gould, who manages inter-party issues, was asked by reporters on the sidelines of the recent Liberal cabinet retreat in Halifax what her party needs to do to keep the NDP on board.
“We’ve signed the agreement till the end of June, so as far as I’m concerned, that’s something that has been signed and agreed to,” she said on Aug. 27. “So I’m going to be working on that premise.”
Gould said there are goals in the agreement that have yet to be accomplished and that her government would “keep pushing in that direction.” The minister added that she is “fairly confident” the agreement will survive until its expiry date.
The second item of the supply and confidence agreement relates to “making life more affordable.” Most of its objectives have been achieved, such as introducing the Early Learning and Child Care Act, launching the Housing Accelerator Fund, and providing a $500 one-time top-up to the Canada Housing Benefit.
Elections Canada’s “ability to deliver an election that Canadians trust could be threatened,” he added. The electoral body proposed adding two days of advance voting instead.
Perrault said allowing people to vote at any polling place within their electoral district could lead to double voting. To prevent this, he said Elections Canada plans to roll out electronic voter lists for the next general election.
In light of the exhaustive list of items in the supply and confidence agreement, the NDP could pull out of its deal with the Liberals at any time, having obtained most of its demands. The choice could come down to determining whether it is politically advantageous to break the deal in order to have an early election.